Residents of Kibera, one of Kenya’s largest informal settlements, are preparing for possible severe flooding as weather experts warn that a strong El Niño could bring heavy rainfall across the country. Agnes Shikoli, a 62-year-old resident whose home is located close to the Ngong River in Nairobi, says she remains frightened by the possibility of another round of floods following the destruction earlier this year.
During the long rainy season in March, floodwater reportedly reached halfway up the walls of her home, damaging household belongings. Her sister, Beatrice Khalayi, 58, was among the more than 60 people who died during the floods after reportedly being electrocuted when her house was inundated. Shikoli said she feared that further flooding could destroy the poorly constructed homes along the river and put residents’ lives at risk.
With Kenya’s short rainy season beginning, concerns have increased over forecasts of potentially intense rainfall linked to El Niño. In response to the warnings, workers under the Climate Worx programme, operating through the office of President William Ruto, have intensified efforts to clear rubbish from Nairobi’s rivers and drainage channels.
The programme aims to rehabilitate the city’s rivers and reduce the risk of flooding. Similar operations are taking place across Nairobi, where blocked drains and inadequate sewage systems were identified as major factors that worsened the deadly floods earlier in the year. Nairobi County’s disaster management chief, Bramwell Simiyu, said the drainage systems had remained neglected for many years and that clearing them was necessary to protect lives.
He explained that the city’s drainage infrastructure was developed about 30 years ago to serve a population of approximately 2.5 million. However, Nairobi now accommodates an estimated seven million people during the day and 5.5 million at night. Simiyu said upgrading the entire drainage and sewage system could require up to $192m, although the national and county governments face financial challenges in raising the necessary funds.
Informal settlements such as Kibera and Mathare face greater flooding risks because many homes are built close to rivers and drainage channels. The Nairobi River Basin Regeneration programme has identified settlements near waterways and weak enforcement of building regulations as factors contributing to flooding. It recommended creating protective buffer zones along rivers and relocating some communities humanely where necessary. However, poverty has forced many residents to settle in vulnerable areas.
Simiyu estimated that up to 100,000 people in low-income settlements could face danger under a worst-case scenario. Under moderate projections, about 5,000 households, representing approximately 20,000 people, could be affected. He said residents who are required to leave their homes would be moved to 167 designated holding grounds, where relief food and other essential supplies would be provided.
Kenya’s Meteorological Department has warned that November is usually the peak month of the short rainy season, which runs from October to December. In September, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) issued a regional forecast indicating an 81 per cent probability of a very strong El Niño between October and December 2026.
Although the anticipated heavy rainfall has not yet occurred, experts remain concerned about the possibility of severe weather. The current conditions have been compared with the 1997–1998 El Niño, which caused widespread flooding and destruction in parts of East Africa.
Weather forecaster Jemima Gacheru explained that similarities in Indian Ocean temperatures between the two periods could contribute to unusually heavy rainfall. She also pointed to the combination of a strong El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole as factors that could increase rainfall across several parts of Kenya.
The International Organization for Migration has warned that nearly 900,000 people in Kenya could be forced from their homes this year, largely because of anticipated flooding. Kenya is not the only country preparing for possible El Niño-related disasters.
In neighboring Somalia, the national disaster management agency has warned that approximately 1.2 million people could face displacement from extreme weather, including floods and drought. The 1997–1998 floods killed about 2,000 people in Somalia and displaced another 250,000, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. Some areas also lost up to 80 per cent of their crops.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification has warned that El Niño-related disruptions to supply chains could worsen food insecurity in Somalia.
Other parts of Africa could experience different effects, including extreme heat and prolonged dry periods. Forecasts also raise concerns about agricultural production in West Africa’s semi-arid Sahel region and parts of southern Africa, where reduced rainfall could increase the risk of crop failure.
The potential effects could worsen existing challenges in communities already struggling with poverty, poor housing, drought and food shortages. Back in Kibera, Shikoli and her family are preparing for possible flooding. Although local officials have advised residents to leave homes close to the river until the rainy season ends, she says her daily earnings of about $2 from selling groundnuts and fruit make relocation difficult. Despite her fears, she says her family has little choice but to endure the situation and hope for the best.
Kenya is preparing for possible severe flooding as forecasters warn of a strong El Niño during the current rainy season. Thousands of people living in vulnerable communities could be affected, while neighboring African countries are also preparing for extreme weather.
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