Nigeria’s annual average inflation is projected to fall to 15.6 per cent in 2026 and decline further to 14.7 per cent in 2027, offering the prospect of slower price increases after years of elevated living costs.
The projections, contained in the International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 economic outlook, compare with an average inflation rate of 23 per cent recorded in 2025.
Analysts at Coronation Research said greater exchange rate stability and expanding domestic refining capacity could help reduce pressure on consumer prices by lowering some energy and transportation costs.
However, they warned that higher energy prices, rising fertiliser costs, food supply challenges and election-related spending could slow the pace of disinflation and limit relief for households and businesses.
The IMF also projects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027, supported by foreign exchange reforms and stronger activity in the non-oil sector.
Coronation Asset Management shares a similar outlook, projecting average inflation of 14.56 per cent in 2027.
Nigeria has faced persistent inflationary pressures linked to exchange rate volatility, higher energy costs and supply chain disruptions. Economic reforms, tighter monetary policy and increased domestic refining capacity are expected to support efforts to stabilise prices.
However, analysts caution that lower inflation would not necessarily mean prices are falling. Rather, it would indicate that prices are rising more slowly, meaning households could continue to face high living costs even as inflation moderates.
See also Cash Outside Nigerian Banks Rises to ₦4.92tn as Money Supply Expands https://vistaonenews.com/2026/10/22/cash-outside-nigerian-banks-rises-to-%e2%82%a64-92tn-as-money-supply-expands/
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