By Benson Daniel
Germany’s political establishment is facing a major test after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured almost 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, leaving Chancellor Friedrich Merz under growing pressure over his ability to contain the party’s rise.
The result has shaken the country’s mainstream political parties and raised fresh questions about the long-standing strategy of keeping the AfD isolated from government through what is commonly known as the political “firewall”.
The AfD fell just three seats short of an outright majority in the eastern German state. Its strong showing has opened the possibility of the party forming or supporting a state government, a development that would mark a significant break with Germany’s postwar political tradition.
The result has also intensified scrutiny of Merz, who came to office promising to restore economic growth, strengthen Germany’s defence capabilities and address mounting problems within the country’s welfare system.
His government has struggled to translate those promises into broad public confidence. Critics argue that Merz has failed to communicate his policies effectively and has adopted a hardline approach on migration without stopping voters from turning increasingly towards the far right.
Former Chancellor Angela Merkel has publicly described the Saxony-Anhalt result as a major turning point for Germany. She has also urged Merz to reconsider how his government communicates with voters, particularly at a time when emotional political messages can carry as much weight as economic statistics.
The AfD’s appeal has also expanded beyond migration, the issue that helped drive its growth during the 2015-16 refugee crisis. The party has increasingly campaigned on concerns about deindustrialisation, living costs, crime and regional identity.
That broader appeal has made the challenge facing Germany’s traditional parties more difficult. Efforts to weaken the AfD by adopting tougher positions on migration have not prevented the party from gaining further support.
Merz himself came under criticism before the 2025 federal election after his party accepted AfD support for a controversial migration proposal before subsequently distancing itself from the cooperation amid widespread protests.
The chancellor now faces further pressure as regional elections approach in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania later this month. The AfD is performing strongly in both states, raising fears that the setbacks suffered by the centre-right Christian Democratic Union could spread beyond Saxony-Anhalt.
Despite the political crisis, there is little appetite within Merz’s own camp for an immediate leadership change. Potential successors, including senior regional leaders, face their own political calculations and may be reluctant to take over while the government is struggling with economic, security and social challenges.
Germany is also dealing with wider problems that extend beyond party politics, including weak economic growth, pressure on its industrial base, an ageing population, deteriorating infrastructure and heightened security concerns linked to Russia and wider geopolitical tensions.
Merz has said he intends to remain in office and learn from the mistakes of his government. Whether he can regain public confidence before further regional elections become a test of his leadership could determine not only his political future but also the ability of Germany’s mainstream parties to prevent the far right from breaking through the country’s traditional political barriers.
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