By Benson Daniel
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has secured more than $50 billion in foreign investment commitments since assuming office, but only about $2.06 billion has been recorded as actual foreign direct investment inflows into Nigeria during the same period.
The commitments were secured through 87 Memoranda of Understanding and investment agreements reached during the President’s foreign trips and diplomatic engagements. They cover several sectors, including energy, manufacturing, agriculture, logistics, technology and infrastructure.
The government has repeatedly highlighted the investment commitments as evidence that its economic reforms and diplomatic engagements are attracting international interest. However, the significant difference between announced pledges and actual capital inflows has prompted questions about how much of the promised investment has progressed beyond the commitment stage.
Since taking office on May 29, 2023, Tinubu has embarked on more than 36 foreign trips, visiting countries across Africa, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, the Caribbean and the Americas.
The trips have included state visits, bilateral meetings, multilateral summits, investment forums and other diplomatic engagements, with attracting foreign capital featuring prominently on the agenda.
Among the biggest investment commitments announced during the period is ExxonMobil’s proposed $10 billion expansion of deepwater oil production.
Other major pledges include €9.2 billion from APPL for the Hydrogen Polis project in Akwa Ibom State, an $8 billion expansion plan by Indorama for petrochemical and fertiliser facilities in Rivers State, and $3 billion from Jindal Steel for iron ore processing and steel production.
Shell has also announced plans involving $3 billion in oil and gas investments, while Arise Integrated Industrial Platforms has committed about $3.5 billion to infrastructure and industrial development.
The Federal Government has maintained that such commitments should not be interpreted as immediate cash transfers into the Nigerian economy. Large scale investments often require lengthy processes involving feasibility studies, financing arrangements, regulatory approvals, final investment decisions and construction before funds are fully deployed.
The available capital importation figures illustrate the difference.
Nigeria attracted approximately $47.6 billion in foreign capital between May 2023 and the first quarter of 2026, representing one of the strongest three year periods for capital inflows since 2019.
However, only a small portion of that capital came through foreign direct investment.
FDI inflows were recorded at $86.03 million in the second quarter of 2023, $59.77 million in the third quarter and $183.97 million in the fourth quarter. The figure stood at $119.18 million in the first quarter of 2024.
FDI fell sharply to $29.83 million in the second quarter of 2024 before rising to $103.82 million in the third quarter and $421.88 million in the fourth quarter.
In 2025, FDI stood at $126.29 million in the first quarter, $142.67 million in the second quarter, $296.25 million in the third quarter and $357.8 million in the fourth quarter.
The first quarter of 2026 recorded another $135.08 million, bringing cumulative FDI inflows during the period to approximately $2.06 billion.
The figures show that while Nigeria has continued to attract substantial foreign capital, most of the inflows have come through other forms of investment, particularly portfolio capital, rather than direct investment in factories, businesses and long term productive assets.
Economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said foreign direct investors generally take considerable time before committing funds because of the long term nature of such investments.
He explained that investors assess country risks, compare alternative investment destinations and consider the broader economic environment before making final decisions.
Yusuf also pointed to previous corporate divestments and uncertainty surrounding Nigeria’s political transition as factors that could encourage some investors to adopt a wait and see approach.
Another economist and University of Abuja lecturer, Dr Olu Olajemgbesi, said the scale of the investment pledges demonstrates that Nigeria has attracted considerable international interest, but stressed that interest should not be confused with realised investment.
According to him, the more important questions are how many of the announced projects have reached financial close, obtained final investment decisions and actually brought capital into Nigeria.
He also questioned the number of jobs created and the amount of additional productive capacity generated from the commitments.
The experts, however, cautioned against judging the President’s foreign trips solely on the basis of the difference between pledged investments and actual FDI.
Large projects can take years to move from an announcement to full implementation. Investors may also restructure projects, delay decisions or alter the size of their commitments depending on economic and market conditions.
The bigger challenge for the government is therefore to convert the investment pipeline into projects that reach financial close, begin construction and eventually generate jobs, production and tax revenues.
The trend in Nigeria’s capital importation further reinforces the issue. In 2025, the country recorded total capital inflows of $23.22 billion, compared with $12.32 billion in 2024.
FDI contributed $923.01 million to the 2025 total, representing 3.97 per cent of aggregate capital inflows, compared with $674.71 million in 2024.
The figures indicate that although overall foreign capital inflows have improved, portfolio investors continue to account for much of the increase.
For the Tinubu administration, the next test will therefore be whether the more than $50 billion in announced commitments can translate into actual investments operating on Nigerian soil.
Ultimately, the strength of Nigeria’s investment drive will be measured not by the number of agreements signed during foreign engagements, but by the amount of capital eventually deployed, businesses established, jobs created and productive capacity added to the economy.
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