Nigeria’s economy gains momentum as Q2 GDP growth rises to 4.43%

By Benson Daniel

Nigeria’s economy strengthened in the second quarter of 2026, with real Gross Domestic Product growing by 4.43 per cent year on year, reinforcing the Federal Government’s optimism that the country can achieve its $1 trillion economy target by 2030.

The latest growth rate represents an improvement from the 3.89 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2026 and the 4.23 per cent achieved in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

The performance also lifted real GDP growth for the first half of the year to 4.16 per cent, compared with 3.68 per cent in the first half of 2025.

The stronger expansion was supported by improvements across several parts of the economy, with the government highlighting manufacturing, agriculture and services as important contributors to the latest performance.

Manufacturing grew by 3.24 per cent in the second quarter, more than twice the 1.60 per cent recorded in the same quarter of 2025. Agriculture also accelerated, expanding by 4.39 per cent compared with 2.82 per cent a year earlier.

Services remained the largest component of economic activity, growing by 4.60 per cent, up from 3.94 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.

The breadth of the expansion was also notable. Twenty seven economic subsectors recorded real growth above three per cent during the quarter, compared with 23 subsectors in the same period last year.

Oil production provided another boost to the economy. Average crude oil output increased to 1.72 million barrels per day during the second quarter, compared with 1.55 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 1.68 million barrels per day in Q2 2025.

The oil sector consequently grew by 7.31 per cent year on year, a significant improvement from the 2.57 per cent recorded in the first quarter.

Despite the stronger oil performance, Nigeria’s economic expansion continued to depend overwhelmingly on the non oil sector. The non oil economy accounted for 95.84 per cent of real GDP and grew by 4.31 per cent during the quarter.

Services accounted for 56.62 per cent of real GDP, while agriculture contributed 26.15 per cent. Industry made up 17.23 per cent.

The figures point to an economy that is gradually building momentum after several years of relatively weak growth. Annual real GDP growth increased from 3.38 per cent in 2024 to 3.87 per cent in 2025, while the latest quarterly performance represents another improvement.

The Federal Government has linked the stronger economic trajectory to ongoing reforms, improved macroeconomic conditions, increased production and greater investor confidence.

The appreciation of the naira has also become important to the government’s ambition of expanding the economy when measured in dollar terms. A more stable exchange rate can increase the dollar value of Nigeria’s output even where the underlying real expansion is more modest.

However, the latest figures do not eliminate the challenges facing the economy. Nigeria still needs substantially faster and more sustained growth to create enough jobs, raise household incomes and improve living standards for its rapidly growing population.

The government’s broader economic ambition is to achieve annual growth of about seven per cent by 2027 and build a $1 trillion economy by 2030. Achieving that target will require the current improvement to be sustained while productivity and investment rise across agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, technology and other productive sectors.

The industrial sector will remain particularly important. Although manufacturing improved during the quarter, broader industrial growth has faced pressure from high production costs, infrastructure constraints, financing difficulties and energy challenges.

For households and businesses, the significance of the latest GDP figures will ultimately be measured by whether stronger output translates into more employment, improved purchasing power, increased investment and lower economic pressures.

The 4.43 per cent expansion is therefore an encouraging signal, but sustaining the momentum will be critical. Nigeria’s ability to convert the current recovery into several years of stronger and broader based growth will determine how realistic the $1 trillion ambition becomes.