Iranian leadership now believes that a policy of restraint has failed to protect its interests and may be moving toward a more confrontational approach, according to Ali Akbar Dareini, a researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Dareini said Tehran believes US President Donald Trump may currently favour a lower intensity conflict, which could involve limited military attacks, economic sanctions and a naval blockade, rather than a full scale war.
He described the approach as a “hybrid war”, arguing that the US could seek to increase pressure on Iran while avoiding a broader military confrontation in the immediate term.
Dareini also said Trump has become increasingly frustrated by Iran’s continued control of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes.
He pointed to Trump’s recent claim that the United States had “decimated Iranian radars”, arguing that despite US military actions, Iran has maintained its control over the strategic waterway.
According to Dareini, the continued standoff over the Strait of Hormuz has heightened tensions between the two countries and could trigger further military escalation.
He further warned that the reported US strikes on three oil tankers represented another dangerous development, saying the situation was moving closer to what he described as a “nightmare scenario” that both Iran and other parties had previously sought to avoid.
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