Climate researchers estimate the deaths could occur between September 2026 and February 2027 as unusually high temperatures intensify the health risks associated with the current El Niño. The projection covers deaths linked specifically to additional heat and does not include further fatalities that could result from droughts, wildfires and flooding.
Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil are identified among the countries expected to record the largest numbers of additional heat deaths during the period. The Sahel and Southeast Asia are also projected to experience significant impacts.
The estimates were produced by analysing the relationship between monthly temperatures and heat-related deaths across 24,378 regions, using mortality patterns from 1996 to 2025 and forecasts of El Niño-driven temperature increases. The researchers said the report has not yet undergone peer review but was released because of the urgency of the projected risks.
The event has already exceeded the previous temperature record associated with El Niño before reaching its expected peak. Researchers warn that its effects could extend into mid-2027, increasing pressure on health systems, food supplies and water resources.
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