In its World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, the IMF said the global economy had proved more resilient than expected over the past six months despite the conflict in the Middle East. However, it cautioned that this resilience could weaken if energy supply disruptions persist or geopolitical tensions escalate.
The rerouting of oil supplies away from the Strait of Hormuz and the release of strategic petroleum reserves have helped limit the impact of the conflict between the United States and Iran on oil prices. But dwindling emergency stocks and stretched public finances could make future energy shocks more difficult for governments to manage.
The IMF also highlighted the United Kingdom’s economic outlook, raising its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3 per cent from 1 per cent projected in July. However, it expects growth to slow to 1.2 per cent in 2027 as higher energy prices and borrowing costs weigh on household spending and business investment.
Global growth is projected at 3.1 per cent in 2026, down from 3.5 per cent in 2025, before improving to 3.4 per cent in 2027.
The outlook underscores the risks facing governments as they contend with rising prices, mounting debt and geopolitical uncertainty. The IMF has urged countries to maintain stronger public finances and prepare for further disruptions rather than rely on costly emergency measures.
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