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Middle East Oil Exports Return Above Pre-War Levels Despite Tanker Attacks

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Middle East crude oil exports rose above pre-war levels in late September despite renewed attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data has shown.

Exports exceeded the previous average of about 18 million barrels per day (bpd) on four days in the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million bpd on September 24 and from September 27 to 29. The seven-day moving average stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1.

The broader flow of crude, petroleum products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30. LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz also reached their highest monthly level since February.

The recovery has been supported by alternative shipping arrangements, including pipeline routes, ship-to-ship transfers and other methods that allow producers to move oil despite disruptions around the strategic waterway.

However, the security situation remains a major risk. At least seven vessel attacks have been reported in and around the Strait of Hormuz, including an incident involving the tanker Kazimah III on October 1. British maritime authorities have also reported at least one attack daily in the Strait or Gulf of Aden since October 2.

The Strait normally handles a significant share of global energy shipments, meaning further attacks could quickly increase shipping costs and put renewed pressure on international oil markets.

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