By Benson Daniel
Sweden is heading into one of its closest elections in years, with the outcome potentially paving the way for the far-right Sweden Democrats to enter government for the first time.
Voters will choose a new 349-member parliament on Sunday, September 13, in a contest between Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s centre-right bloc and a centre-left opposition led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson. Recent opinion polls show the opposition with only a narrow advantage, leaving the final result highly uncertain.
The Sweden Democrats, led by Jimmie Åkesson, have emerged as one of the central forces in the election. The party has supported Kristersson’s government from outside the cabinet since 2022 and has played a major role in shaping its policies on immigration and crime.
That arrangement could change if the right-wing bloc secures enough support. Kristersson has now said the Sweden Democrats could receive ministerial positions in a new government, marking a significant step from their previous position as an excluded political forc.
The possibility has made the election particularly significant beyond the question of who becomes prime minister. A strong result for the Sweden Democrats could give the party direct control over government responsibilities after years of increasing influence without holding cabinet positions.
The race remains extremely close. Recent projections have placed the centre-left parties at roughly 175 to 180 seats and the right-wing bloc at about 169 to 174, meaning relatively small changes in voter support could determine which side is able to form a government.
The Sweden Democrats are polling at around 20%, making them Sweden’s second-largest political force and a potentially decisive player in government formation. Their rise has transformed the country’s political landscape, particularly on immigration, integration and criminal justice.
Immigration has been one of the defining issues. The current government has introduced tougher measures, including restrictions on permanent residency and financial incentives for some immigrants to leave Sweden voluntarily. The policies have been strongly supported by the Sweden Democrats but criticised by opponents who argue that they undermine Sweden’s traditional liberal approach to migration.
The centre-left Social Democrats, meanwhile, are campaigning on welfare, healthcare, taxation and the cost of living. Andersson is seeking to return to the premiership after losing power in 2022.
However, even a victory for Andersson may not produce an easy government. The parties on the left have disagreements over taxation, energy and other major policies, while their common opposition to the Sweden Democrats may not be enough to overcome those differences.
For Sweden, the election therefore represents more than a contest between two political blocs. It could determine whether a party once kept on the margins of national politics becomes an official governing force.
The final result is expected to be closely watched across Europe, where right-wing populist parties have been gaining ground and traditional political alliances are increasingly being tested.
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