American consumers are facing higher toy prices ahead of the holiday shopping season as import tariffs and rising energy costs linked to the Iran conflict increase pressure on household budgets.
Toy prices in the United States rose 6.6% over the 12 months to September 2026, according to the latest consumer inflation data. Prices also increased 4.2% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, outpacing increases in several other consumer categories as families prepare to buy holiday gifts.
The industry is particularly exposed to trade tensions because a large share of toys sold in the US are manufactured in China. Higher oil prices are adding pressure because many toys are made from petroleum-based plastics, while rising fuel and shipping costs increase the expense of moving goods to retailers.
David Silverman, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said the effects of the Iran conflict on commodity and transportation costs could persist for several quarters.
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Although US tariffs on Chinese goods declined from an initial 145% rate to 30% in May 2025, manufacturers say prices on current products still reflect earlier increases. Jay Foreman, chief executive of Florida-based Basic Fun, said tariffs influenced the pricing of toys arriving on store shelves this autumn.
Mattel Chief Financial Officer Paul Ruh reported moderate inflationary pressures associated with developments in the Middle East, while Hasbro Chief Financial Officer Gina Goetter said the company had absorbed higher input costs.
Political pressure is also mounting. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted through October 5 found that 21% of voters approved of President Donald Trump’s handling of living costs, while 67% disapproved.
The combination of tariffs, energy costs and manufacturing expenses threatens to make holiday shopping more expensive for American families.
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