Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s credit outlook from stable to positive while maintaining the country’s long-term sovereign credit rating at ‘B’, citing stronger foreign exchange reserves, moderating inflation and improvements in the country’s economic policy framework.
The decision, announced on October 9, 2026, indicates that Nigeria could receive a credit rating upgrade if the current economic improvements are sustained. However, the rating itself remains unchanged.
Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $54.9 billion as of September 25, compared with $32 billion in mid-April 2024. Fitch attributed the increase to stronger export earnings, remittances, foreign investment inflows and changes in foreign exchange market operations.
The agency projects that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from 4 per cent in 2025, supported by activity outside the oil sector. It also expects the country’s current account surplus to reach 6.4 per cent of gross domestic product this year.
Improved oil production and increased domestic refining capacity have also helped reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and ease pressure on foreign exchange demand.
Despite these gains, Fitch identified persistent challenges, including elevated inflation, weak government revenue relative to the size of the economy and high debt-servicing costs. Interest payments continue to consume a substantial share of government income, limiting resources available for public services and infrastructure.
The Federal Government said it would continue implementing tax reforms, strengthen public spending efficiency and maintain a market-reflective foreign exchange system.
The revised outlook offers a positive signal to investors, but sustained reforms and stronger public finances will be necessary to secure an eventual rating upgrade.
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