Bain Capital expects sustainable aviation fuel to become a major growth industry as governments introduce rules requiring airlines to increase their use of lower-carbon fuels, despite weak demand and substantial spare production capacity in the sector.
The private equity firm is a major investor in EcoCeres, the world’s second-largest sustainable aviation fuel producer by capacity. Bain partner James Tam said the industry was entering a multi-decade expansion as SAF mandates spread from Europe into Asia.
Global SAF production is expected to reach about 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, representing only 0.8% of worldwide jet fuel demand. At the same time, production capacity is expected to exceed 9 million tonnes, highlighting the gap between available supply and what airlines are currently willing to buy.
EcoCeres has about 770,000 tonnes of annual renewable-fuel capacity across plants in China and Malaysia. It plans to build a new 450,000-tonne-a-year facility in Dongguan, China, by 2030, supported by Hong Kong’s target for SAF to account for 1% to 3% of fuel used by departing flights by that year.
The planned expansion forms part of a reported $1.27 billion, 10-year investment programme. EcoCeres is also preparing for a potential Hong Kong listing that could raise about $1 billion.
The company relies entirely on waste-based feedstocks, including used cooking oil collected from restaurants across China, giving it a traceable supply chain as airlines face growing pressure to cut emissions.
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