Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied in a hypothetical presidential runoff, according to a new poll released ahead of Brazil’s October election.
The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey puts Bolsonaro at 47.7% and Lula at 47.6% in a potential second-round contest, a difference of just 0.1 percentage point and well within the poll’s one-point margin of error.
In the first-round scenario, Lula leads with 45.3% of voter support, compared with 42.2% for Bolsonaro. The survey was conducted between September 23 and 28 among 5,005 respondents.
Brazil’s first-round presidential election is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate secures more than half of valid votes, the two leading candidates will proceed to a runoff on October 25.
The latest figures underscore the closely contested nature of the race, with recent surveys producing different results while showing a competitive contest between the incumbent president and Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The election is being closely watched across Latin America because of Brazil’s economic and diplomatic influence in the region.
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