Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is set to select its candidates for Israel’s October elections on Monday, with analysts warning that a shift further to the right could weaken the Israeli leader’s chances of securing another victory.
The candidates emerging from the Likud primaries will face a difficult campaign, as opinion polls indicate that the party’s support has declined significantly since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. Current projections suggest Likud could lose about a third of its parliamentary seats.
Analysts say the party could face an even tougher contest if its approximately 140,000 registered members select a slate dominated by populist and hard right candidates, despite growing support among traditional Likud voters for a more centrist political direction.
Nimrod Nir, an analyst at Hebrew University’s Agam Labs, said the growing divide between Likud’s membership, its wider voter base and the general public could have a significant impact on Netanyahu’s electoral prospects.
Netanyahu Courts Moderates
An Agam Labs survey published on August 11 found that 54.9% of Likud voters preferred a more centrist government than Netanyahu’s current coalition, which includes ultra Orthodox Jewish and nationalist parties.
By contrast, only about one third of registered Likud members said they favoured a centre right government. Around two thirds preferred a government similar to the current coalition formed after Netanyahu’s 2022 election victory.
The coalition includes National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s ultranationalist Jewish Power party and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party. Both have supported controversial proposals concerning Gaza, including the displacement of Palestinians and the establishment of Israeli settlements in the territory.
Netanyahu has been seeking to attract more moderate candidates to the party’s electoral list in an effort to offset the growing influence of populist figures.
“As Prime Minister of Israel, I intend to deepen the unity within us,” Netanyahu said in a video statement on July 22, adding that he would work to establish a broad and stable national government focused on Israel’s security and future.
However, a former senior Likud member familiar with the party’s strategy said Netanyahu’s efforts to reshape the candidate list were not progressing well.
Four current and former senior Likud members, speaking anonymously, said the party was working to regain support from voters who had moved away from the party since the previous election.
A Likud spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Undecided Voters Could Prove Crucial
The Agam Labs survey, which questioned around 1,000 Likud members and more than 1,000 voters, also highlighted significant divisions within the party over key political issues.
One of the most contentious issues is military service exemptions for ultra Orthodox Jewish men. The government has faced pressure from ultra Orthodox leaders seeking exemptions for members of their communities from Israel’s compulsory military service.
The issue has become increasingly sensitive during the Gaza war, with many non Orthodox Jewish Israelis questioning why they should continue carrying a larger share of the military burden.
More than 80% of Likud voters surveyed said they wanted an increase in the number of ultra Orthodox men serving in the military, compared with 65% of registered Likud members.
With about 20% of Israel’s overall electorate still undecided, political analysts say these voters could play a decisive role in the October election.
“These are the people that are going to decide what’s going to happen with the election,” said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at Hebrew University.
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