A powerful El Niño weather event could push nearly 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year, the World Food Programme (WFP) warned on Wednesday, as forecasts point to widespread droughts, floods and disrupted harvests across vulnerable regions.
According to the WFP, there is an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño developing, with Pacific Ocean temperatures reaching their highest levels since at least 1982, potentially making it the strongest event since 1950.
The agency estimates that the number of people facing acute food insecurity in 45 vulnerable countries could rise from current levels to 274 million, representing an increase of about 22%.
Regions expected to be most affected include:
- Central America – food insecurity projected to rise by 83%.
- Southern Africa – increase of nearly 75%, with more than 12 million additional people affected.
- South America and the Caribbean – also expected to see over 12 million more people facing acute hunger.
WFP Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Director Jean Martin Bauer said previous El Niño events have triggered major hunger crises, warning that ongoing conflicts and possible crop losses could place further pressure on food prices despite relatively stable global food markets following strong harvests in 2025.
The report also highlighted concerns over reduced humanitarian funding, which has weakened food security monitoring. WFP household surveys dropped from 1.1 million in 2024 to about 800,000 in 2025, with further reductions this year limiting the agency’s ability to detect emerging crises quickly.
Forecasts indicate rainfall deficits across parts of East Africa, the Sahel, Central America and the Caribbean, while flooding risks are expected to increase in Somalia and surrounding areas. South and Southeast Asia could also experience disrupted monsoons, drought and localized flooding that threaten agricultural production.
WFP said it has expanded early action programmes in 18 countries, providing cash assistance and other support to more than 1.3 million people this year to help communities prepare for extreme weather.
The agency urged governments and humanitarian organisations to strengthen preparedness efforts, warning that timely intervention will be critical to reducing the humanitarian impact of the expected El Niño event.
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