Houthi forces’ advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and seizure of territory and islands near the Bab el Mandeb Strait have exposed weaknesses in Saudi Arabia’s strategy in Yemen and raised concerns over the security of a major global shipping route.
The gains have highlighted divisions among Saudi backed Yemeni factions, weaknesses in intelligence and limited Saudi air support. Western, regional and Yemeni officials told Reuters that the Houthis had quietly expanded their forces, with one diplomat estimating their strength at about 100,000 fighters.
The collapse of Saudi backed forces also allowed the Houthis to seize significant quantities of US and Saudi supplied weapons abandoned during the retreat. Analysts said the equipment could strengthen the group’s military capabilities and provide intelligence on opposing forces.
The developments have left Riyadh seeking additional regional support. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman travelled to Cairo to discuss the situation, with regional sources saying Saudi Arabia wanted Egypt to consider a role in Red Sea operations. Egypt has not publicly confirmed whether it will provide military assistance.
The Houthis’ position around Bab el Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, could give the group greater influence over shipping and energy routes. Combined with Iran’s influence around the Strait of Hormuz, the developments could give Tehran and its allies leverage over two important maritime chokepoints.
The United States and European countries have so far shown no indication that they are prepared to provide direct military support for a Saudi counteroffensive. Western officials also said Washington and its allies had not joined a Saudi led maritime defence coalition announced in July.
Former US negotiator Dennis Ross said the Houthis could use their territorial gains to push for concessions from Riyadh, including easing restrictions on Hodeidah port and Sanaa airport, compensation related to the war and reduced Saudi support for Yemen’s internationally recognised government.
Regional officials warned that Saudi Arabia faces difficult choices. Allowing the Houthis to consolidate their gains could increase their long term leverage, while a major military response could risk further attacks inside Saudi territory.
The offensive has also renewed debate over the reliability of US security support for Riyadh. Some analysts said Washington’s reluctance to intervene could weaken Saudi leverage and encourage Iran and its allies to expand their regional influence.
The Houthis’ latest gains come after years of conflict in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia intervened in 2015 to support the internationally recognised government against the Iran aligned movement. Previous foreign interventions in Yemen have also struggled to achieve lasting military success.
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